*political associates, allies decamp
*Makinde has 50% chances
*APC depletes, PDP. gains
*Tinubu’s influence wanes
By; BAYO AKAMO, Ibadan
As the 2023 general elections is fast approaching, there are strong indications that the incumbent governor in Oyo State, Engineer Seyi Makinde may face serious political war in the race for the state’s governorship election.
Going by the current political situation in Oyo State, there is no doubt that the 2023 governorship election in the state will be between Governor Makinde and others, possibly against a coalition of political parties as witnessed in the 2019 polls in the state.
There is no doubt that Governor Makinde is presently enjoying the support of some sectors in the state, particularly the civil servants and the pensioners, but in the Oyo State political circle as at present, the situation is far different.
The governor is faced with defection of some of his political associates and colleagues including his Deputy, Engineer Rauf Olaniyan , and a serving Senator, Dr Kola Balogun dumping the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) grudgingly on the allegations of having issues with Governor Makinde, especially on securing political tickets for the 2023 elections.
Considering these and other factors mostly the ongoing “ganging up” of notable political giants in Oyo State, Governor Makinde may likely be in for a big political battle to regain his seat in 2023, having signified his intention to recontest and as well, has secured his party’s governorship ticket with another deputy governorship candidate, in the person of Chief Bayo Lawal.
In determining the 2023 governorship election in a state like Oyo, there are some relevant factors that need to be taken into consideration, one of which is where the governorship candidate hails from which till today, is still serving as a most relevant determining factor in who becomes Oyo State governor at a particular time.
In the coming 2023 elections, this relevant factor may not work in favour of Governor Seyi Makinde being an Ibadan indigene as other prominent political parties in the state are also fielding Ibadan indigenes for the same election.
In the All Progressives Congress (APC) , the party’s governorship candidate, Senator Teslim Folarin is an Ibadan indigene, Accord Party is having Chief Adebayo Adelabu also an Ibadan indigene as candidate, while the New Nigerian Peoples Party (NNPP) is equally presenting an Ibadan indigene, Engineer Joshua Olukayode Popoola (POJ) as its gubernatorial candidate.
Another key factor in the Oyo State governorship race will be the High Chief Rashidi Ladoja’s influence which for now, no serious politician in the state and even beyond can take for granted as far as the 2023 elections will be concerned.
As at present, the fear and closeness to the Ondo Road Bodija residence of High Chief Ladoja is the beginning of wisdom for governorship candidates in the state as nearly all the prominent gubernatorial and other candidates are on daily basis, thronging and milling around the Otun Olubadan for his blessings and support for the 2023 race.
However, the High Chief Ladoja factor may not necessarily impact negatively on the chances of Governor Makinde’s second term chances as the governor is widely believed to be in the good books of High Chief Ladoja.
Also, the All Progressives Congress (APC), Presidential candidate, Senator Bola Ahmed Tinubu factor may not necessarily have any impact on the chances of Governor Seyi Makinde or the 2023 governorship election in Oyo State, going by the feelers in the state’s political circle.
To start with, as at present, all is not well in the APC in the state as was publicly acknowledged by the APC Presidential candidate himself during his visit to Oyo State ahead the APC Presidential primary when he said he needs to come back to the state to raise the hands of Senator Teslim Folarin up as the party’s governorship candidate.
He minced no words in quickly asking Senator Folarin to without wasting time, embark on fence mending and reconciliation drive by visiting aggrieved APC stakeholders in and across the state and that he would have to meet with the APC stakeholders in the state at his Lagos house on ways to resolve the crisis in Oyo state before it will get out of hand.
Amidst the crisis in APC camp in Oyo State, Governor Makinde is leaving no stone unturned in depleting the party (APC) ahead of the 2023 elections with the defection of prominent APC leaders into the PDP.
As at the last count, the governor has successfully wooed into PDP a former governorship aspirant in the APC and recently a House of Representatives candidate in Ibarapa area of the state and some others still expected to join the PDP.
Though in politics, 24 hours is enough to turn a table around for good or otherwise, the possibility of having a coalition of political parties in Oyo State against the candidature of Governor Makinde in the February 2023 polls remains unrealistic for now, considering the cat and mouse game between those aspiring for Oyo State number one seat against Governor Makinde.
While Senator Teslim Folarin of APC is engaged in fence mending, Chief Adebayo Adelabu is busy finding his level in his new party, Accord Party, with Engineer Joshua Olukayode Popoola working towards making his party NNPP known and acceptable to the people of Oyo State.
With what is presently on ground in Oyo State, baring last minute political manouvering, scheming or permutations, it will not be out of way to among other things, rate the chances of Governor Seyi Makinde in the 2023 governorship election as 50% with the other three major candidates sharing the remaining 50% among themselves.
